1) More than 3 in 4 Democrats (78%) said the court’s decision made it more likely that they would vote in the fall. A slim majority of Republicans (54%) said the same.
2) Democrats now lead on the generic ballot question (“If the election were today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for House”) 48% to 41% over Republicans, a remarkable 10-point swing since an NPR poll in April.
While these numbers may be cold comfort to many who see states — particularly in the South — already moving to put bans on abortion, they do suggest that the court may have unwittingly shifted the debate in the midterms.
What’s clear is that, at the moment, the ruling has woken up the Democratic base to the stakes of the midterms. And that goes double for women.
The conclusion here is obvious: For Democrats to have a chance, they need a major margin among women — especially suburban women — since so many other swing groups, including independents, are trending strongly against them.
What’s far less clear is whether that anger and outrage can a) hold all the way until November and b) trump economic issues like inflation and gas prices when it comes to what swing voters really care about.
Democrats in some districts and states are already on air with TV ads hoping to capitalize on the furor over the court’s ruling. Watch the airwaves in the coming months to see if that keeps up. If it does, there’s reason to conclude the issue is moving voters.
The Point: This election is still shaping up to be a good one for Republicans. The question now is whether the Roe ruling can limit Democratic losses.