Sun. Sep 25th, 2022

Generally speaking, home-field advantage is worth three points when it comes to NFL odds. Even with that, the Week 1 NFL schedule clearly favors the road squads, as 10 of the 16 games have away teams as favorites. Those NFL spreads come from Caesars Sportsbook, which lists the Texans as the biggest home underdogs at +8 against the Colts. On the other hand, the Cincinnati Bengals are the biggest home favorites, as they’re giving 6.5 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Week 1 NFL odds. Which road teams should you back with your NFL bets?  All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Vikings (+2) cover against the Packers in well over 50 percent of simulations. Despite its 13-4 record last year, the Packers were just 2-3 against the spread as road favorites. One of those losses came at Minnesota in Week 11, when Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson combined for 287 total yards and three touchdowns.

Those two will be the best playmakers on the field come Sunday and the model expects them each to have impact games. Cook is projected for another 100-yard game of total offense, while Jefferson is expected to reach nearly 100 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the quest to replace Davante Adams won’t be settled in Week 1 since no Packers wideout is forecasted to even reach 50 yards in receptions. SportsLine’s model has Minnesota (+2) covering in well over 50 percent of simulations. See who else to back here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: The Colts (-8) cover the spread on the road versus the Texans. One of Houston’s many weaknesses last year was its run defense, which ranked 31st. That porous defense was a major reason why Jonathan Taylor was the rushing king, as he gained 145 yards versus Houston in Week 6 and another 143 in Week 13. The model modestly projects Taylor to have just 110 yards, but it also has Colts quarterback Matt Ryan throwing for nearly 250 yards and two touchdowns.

After scoring a total of three points in the two games against Indy in 2021, the model has Houston reaching double-digits in Week 1. That won’t be enough versus a Colts team forecasted to top its season average of 26.5 points per game from a year ago. SportsLine’s model has Indianapolis winning by double-digits and covering as eight-point favorites in almost 60 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,500 since its inception, and find out.

Week 1 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Thursday, Sept. 8

Rams at Bills (+2.5, 53)

Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills

Sunday, Sept. 11

Ravens at Jets (+7, 44.5)

Featured Game | New York Jets vs. Baltimore Ravens

Browns at Panthers (-1.5, 41.5)

Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Cleveland Browns

Colts at Texans (+8, 44)

Featured Game | Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

Jaguars at Commanders (-3. 44)

Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Patriots at Dolphins (-2.5, 45)

Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Saints at Falcons (+5.5, 42.5)

Featured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Eagles at Lions (+4, 48.5)

Featured Game | Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Steelers at Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

49ers at Bears (+7, 42)

Featured Game | Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

Packers at Vikings (+2, 48)

Featured Game | Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

Chiefs at Cardinals (+3.5, 53)

Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Raiders at Chargers (-3.5, 52)

Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Giants at Titans (-5.5, 44)

Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. New York Giants

Buccaneers at Cowboys (+1.5, 50)

Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, Sept. 12

Broncos at Seahawks (+6, 41.5)

Featured Game | Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos

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