Tue. Jan 31st, 2023

Week 2 in the NFL didn’t lack drama. All throughout the weekend, there were plenty of must-see moments across the slate, especially on Sunday when we saw massive leads evaporate in the blink of an eye. Miami rallied back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Ravens, the Jets erased a 30-17 lead with under two minutes to play to pull out the win over Cleveland, and Arizona forced OT in the last second of regulation and won the game on a fumble recovery for a touchdown. 

It was an insane turn of events and we still have two more games with a Monday night doubleheader. As we wait for those games to kick off, it’s never too early to take a look at what’s to come in Week 3. Below, we’ll take our first glimpse of these matchups and get our impression of the opening lines for these games to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers see coming out on top. 

Out of the gate, it’s worth noting that some of these lines opened way back in the spring when the schedule was released, so we’ll look at that and also break down the latest movements following Week 2. 

Week 3 early odds

(All lines from Caesars Sportsbook, all games on Sunday unless noted)

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

Opening line: Browns -3.5

Cleveland opened as a 3.5-point favorite back in mid-May and that has largely held throughout the summer and early stages of the season, which is pretty remarkable considering the fluidity of their quarterback situations over the course of that time. Coming out of Week 2, the Browns are still a -3.5-point favorite at home and are looking to rebound after a crushing collapse against the Jets. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh suffered its first loss of the season against the Patriots on Sunday in a game where Mitchell Trubisky struggled and threw for just 168 yards. 

As it relates to this AFC North matchup, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Cleveland has struggled at home (1-5 ATS) as of late but has played well on short weeks, owning an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 Thursday games. The Steelers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against divisional opponents. 

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints

Opening line: Saints -2

New Orleans has remained the favorite dating back to the spring and that advantage has since increased to Saints -3 coming out of Week 2. They are coming off a brutal loss to the Buccaneers where the offense turned the ball over five times in the second half. As for the Panthers, they find themselves 0-2 on the year but have only lost by a combined five points. Historically, the Saints have fared extremely well in Carolina, owning a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight meetings on the road. That said, the underdog is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 meetings. 

Latest Odds:

Chicago Bears

Opening line: Bears -3.5

This line moved down to Bears -3 last Tuesday after sitting at Bears -3.5 throughout the summer and has held coming out of this weekend’s action. For a minute, it looked like the Bears were going to put the Packers on upset alert as they scored a touchdown on their opening drive, but were quickly left in the dust in primetime. Houston’s offense struggled to find its footing and managed just three field goals in the loss to Denver, but was able to stifle Russell Wilson and hold the Broncos offense to just 16 points, which was enough to cover. The Texans are 5-1 ATS over their last games while the Bears are 1-4 ATS following a straight-up loss.  

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs

Opening line: Chiefs -2.5

These odds have changed rather dramatically, which isn’t exactly encouraging news for the Colts. When this line opened, they were still considered a home dog, but only by 2.5 points. After seeing Indianapolis through two weeks, the line leaped to Chiefs -6.5 on Sunday night. That is largely due to the sluggish start to the season that the Colts are currently in the midst of, tying with the Texans in Week 1 and then being shut out by the Jaguars in Week 2. Considering that the Chiefs are a far superior team to both of those clubs, it’s no surprise to see this line jump, but it’s jarring nonetheless. 

Kansas City gutted out a win over the Chargers last Thursday and comes into this matchup on extended rest. Following a straight-up win, the Chiefs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Dating back to last year, Indy is 0-4 ATS in their last four. 

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills

Opening line: Bills -4

Buffalo opened as a 4-point road favorite in the spring and that advantage has only bumped up a half-point since then as it now sits at Bills -4.5 coming out of Sunday. Of course, this could change a bit more once Buffalo plays its Week 2 game on Monday night, but they will be facing a Dolphins team that has surprised folks to begin the year. They are coming off one of the more improbable wins in recent memory, erasing a 21-point lead by the Ravens to pull off the upset. Tua Tagovailoa made some stellar throws in the comeback and finished with six passing touchdowns to go along with 469 yards. 

Miami heads home where they have enjoyed success with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games at Hard Rock Stadium. While the Dolphins may be riding high, they’ll face a massive challenge in the Bills, who are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. 

Latest Odds:

Minnesota Vikings

Opening line: Vikings -6.5

Minnesota was a 6.5-point favorite when the line opened in the spring and has stayed in that ballpark, albeit with the line crossing over the touchdown threshold to 7.5 after Week 1. Currently, it sits at Vikings -7, but there could be some volatility going forward after Minnesota plays on Monday night. Detroit was able to jump out to an early lead against Washington and fended off a Commanders second-half rally thanks to a four-touchdown performance by Jared Goff. 

In this NFC North head-to-head, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Lions are also riding a 4-0 ATS record against their divisional opponents. That said, the Vikings have played well at home, covering four of their previous five games. 

Ravens (1-1) at Patriots (1-1) 

Latest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens

Opening line: PK

This was initially a pick’em in the spring, but a lot has changed with these odds since then. Baltimore is now the road favorite laying three points heading out of Week 1 and it’s remained that way following the events of Week 2. The Ravens collapsed against the Dolphins, blowing a 21-point lead for their first loss of the season. That said, Lamar Jackson continued to look like a former MVP, passing for three touchdowns and rushing for a 79-yard score as well. As for the Patriots, they got into the win column thanks to a victory against Pittsburgh, but the offense still looks a bit clunky at times as they work in de facto OC Matt Patricia. 

Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a straight-up loss. 

Bengals (0-2) at Jets (1-1)

Latest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals

Opening line: Bengals -4.5

This line has come full circle. After opening at Bengals -4.5 in the spring, it jumped up to Bengals -6 following Week 1. However, in the aftermath of Cincinnati’s surprising loss in Dallas to a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys team, this line has bumped back down to Bengals -4.5 on Monday. Meanwhile, New York had an improbable win over the Browns where they score two touchdowns following the two-minute warning to pull off the upset. They now host a Cincinnati team that has struggled in New York. In their last six games in East Rutherford, the Bengals are 1-5 ATS. However, the Jets have not played particularly well at home either, owning a 2-5 ATS record, and are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight win. 

Latest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders

Opening line: Titans -2.5

Again, this line may change even more after Tennessee squares off against the Bills, but there has already been a big shift in this Week 3 matchup. After opening as the 2.5-point favorite, the Titans now find themselves as a home dog in this matchup. This game initially moved to a pick’em after Week 1, but the Raiders are now -1 coming out of Sunday’s action. 

Las Vegas was on the losing end of its Week 2 matchup with the Cardinals and were one of the many late-game collapses we saw across the league. They allowed Arizona to tie the game in the final second of regulation and force overtime and a fumble returned for a touchdown moved the Raiders to 0-2 on the year. Las Vegas is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss and are also 1-4 ATS on the road in their last five. 

Eagles (1-0) at Commanders (1-1)

Latest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles

Opening line: Eagles -1

Philadelphia is now sitting as a 4-point road favorite for this Week 3 matchup, but this line could change depending on what happens with its Week 2 matchup with the Vikings on Monday night. Washington nearly pulled off a late-game rally against the Lions in Week 2, scoring all 27 of their points in the second half. What could play into their favor for this upcoming game is that it’s being played at FedEx Field. In their previous four meetings, the home team is 3-0-1 ATS. Washington is also 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss. 

Jaguars (1-1) at Chargers (1-1)

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers

Opening line: Chargers -10

L.A. was a double-digit home favorite back in the spring, but this line has moved down to Chargers -7 coming out of Week 2. The main reason likely is the status of Justin Herbert, who fractured some cartilage in his rib in Thursday’s opener against the Chiefs. He is considered day-to-day and the extended rest in-between games may help him suit up in Week 3. Not only is Herbert’s injury a factor, but the Jaguars have been plucky to start the season. They probably should have upset Washington in Week 1 and then dominated the Colts at home to the tune of 24-0. 

Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, but the Chargers don’t have that powerful of a home-field advantage. That said, L.A. is 7-3 ATS following a loss. 

Rams (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1) 

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams

Opening line: Rams -1

The defending Super Bowl champs’ advantage has grown since opening as a 1-point road favorite against their division rival. Now, they are slotted as a 4-point favorite following Week 2. This line got as high as Rams -5 on Sunday night but has since come back down. Arizona pulled off a last-second win over the Raiders but was a bit shaky in the early stages of the game. Meanwhile, Los Angeles notched its first win of the year, but couldn’t cover against the Falcons, who kept this game within double digits. 

All in all, the Rams have dominated this head-to-head as of late. They are 9-1-1 in their last 11 meetings overall and are a perfect 7-0 ATS in Arizona. The Cardinals are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Falcons (0-2) at Seahawks (1-1)

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks

Opening line: Seahawks -3.5

This number has come down since it was Seahawks -3.5 back in May. After Week 1, this line slipped to Seahawks -3 and has only continued to fall after Week 2 and now sits at Seahawks -2. Despite being 0-2 on the year, the Falcons are a perfect 2-0 ATS through the first couple of weeks. Even as they were double-digit dogs to the Rams, Atlanta was able to hang around and drop 27 points on Sean McVay’s defense. Meanwhile, Seattle came back down the earth a bit after upsetting Russell Wilson and the Broncos in Week 1, falling to the 49ers where they managed just seven points. 

Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games, but the Seahawks do sport one of the better home-field advantages in the NFL and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Lumen Field. 

Packers (1-1) at Buccaneers (2-0)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening line: Buccaneers -3

This will be an interesting line to follow throughout the week. Tampa Bay opened as a 3-point favorite over Green Bay, but that has since dipped below the field-goal threshold to -2.5. It’s worth pointing out that Bucs star wideout Mike Evans was handed a one-game suspension for his part in Tampa Bay’s brawl with the Saints in Week 2. He’s appealing the suspension, but there is a chance the club could be without him in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Packers seemed to get back on track with a dominating win over the Bears where Aaron Rodgers and the offense looked much sharper than in Week 1. 

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS on the road in their last four games away from Lambeau Field but is solid against teams with a winning record, owning a 9-3 ATS mark. As for the Bucs, they’ve played the NFC well holding a 5-1 ATS record against conference opponents. 

49ers (1-1) at Broncos (1-1)

Latest Odds:

Denver Broncos

Opening line: Broncos -3

Denver was the favorite when this line was debuted in the spring, but this has since been dragged down to a pick’em. All of that action has come following Week 2’s showing where both of these teams made headlines. The most significant is the change at quarterback for the 49ers as Jimmy Garoppolo is slated to take over following Trey Lance’s season-ending ankle injury. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense continues to look underwhelming as they managed just 16 points in a win over Houston. 

San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. As for the Broncos, they are 0-2 ATS this season under Russell Wilson and head coach Nathaniel Hackett. 

Cowboys (1-1) at Giants (2-0), Monday

Latest Odds:

New York Giants

Opening line: Cowboys -3

The final game on the Week 3 slate has essentially been turned on its head. Now, it’s the Giants who are the 3-point favorite against their NFC East rival, which primarily revolves around the unavailability of Dak Prescott (thumb). In his absence, Dallas was able to upset the Bengals at home and Cooper Rush played well, throwing for 235 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Giants are 2-0 in the Brian Daboll era after taking down the Panthers in Week 2. On top of a 2-0 record to begin the year, they are also perfect ATS. 

In their last 10 meetings, Dallas has taken control of this rivalry with an 8-2 ATS record, which includes a 4-1 ATS mark in their last five games in New York. However, with Daboll now having his hand on the wheel and Dallas sporting a backup quarterback, this could be a spot where they pull out a rare win/cover. 

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