Tue. Nov 29th, 2022

These two prime-time games are a reward for our penance on Thursday night. Two elite divisional matchups on Sunday and Monday plus a bunch of eyebrow-raising chaos bombs lingering in the early window. 

The two non Chiefs-Bills games in the late window are extremely “meh” at first glance. But a crazy NFC West shootout and Carolina playing spoiler could really turn the afternoon window into a full day of calamity. 

Last week felt like a C+ or B- drama week for the NFL. This one has the makings of some very bizarre twists and turns.  

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

NFL Week 6 Picks

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Latest Odds:

New York Giants
+5.5

The Giants are the most fun question in football right now — is this start legit or will they regress? Brian Daboll is universally beloved regardless, both by Giants fans and football fans in general. He’s so dang blue collar. The only concern is New York’s coming back from London off a massive win against a very dangerous offense. The Giants will muddle things up because they can’t win with lockdown defense, but it’s asking a LOT of this team to slow down Lamar Jackson. I think we see a ton of points here, assuming the forecast remains benign, especially with Marcus Williams now on IR for Baltimore. I’m picking the Ravens but if I were betting them I’d take the first half line instead with New York battling potential jet lag.

The pick: Ravens 35, Giants 28
Props, Best Bets: Over 45.5

Sunday,1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
+2.5

The Andy Dalton Revenge Game!! Cincy is 31st in yards per play in the NFL this year, which would be shocking except the bigger stunner is the Rams ranking 32nd. Quite the precipitous fall for the reigning conference champs. These teams feel like traditional scorers, but both defenses are substantially better than the current iteration of the offenses. This game is an LSU FEST. Betting against Joe Burrow in Louisiana does not feel smart and I bet we see a sneaky amount of Burrow jerseys in the stands from Saints fans who appreciate what he did at LSU. I have the Saints but barely.

The Pick: Saints 17, Bengals 14
Bets: Under 43

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
-2

Insane stat: the Colts are the first team since the 1995 Chargers to not allow a single point in the fourth quarter of any game through five weeks of the season. More insane stat: if the Jaguars don’t score in the fourth quarter Sunday, the Colts will be the first team since the 1934 Bears and 1934 Lions to not allow a fourth-quarter point through six games of the season. Now, granted, this isn’t entirely the Colts being elite on defense — Jacksonville shut/blew them out a few weeks back and no one scored late. The Broncos stepped on their own foot last Thursday. Etc, etc., but still a crazy stat. The Jaguars are, somehow, the more desperate team here. The under is so low it’s hard to play, but it’s hard to see where the points come from here. 

The Pick: Jaguars 14, Colts 9
Bets: Lean under and Jags

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
+3

Any discussion of this game is largely irrelevant without knowing the precise nature of the Miami quarterback situation. Skylar Thompson, the late-round rookie, has been announced by Mike McDaniel as the starter. I think Teddy Bridgewater plays (he never suffered a concussion, per the Dolphins, but the altered protocols forced him to remain out of the game and miss practice). I’m willing to bet on the +3.5 that he ends up playing and I think we see a ton of points in this game too.

The Pick: Dolphins 28, Vikings 24
Bets: Over 45.5, Dolphins +3.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
-2.5

Bill Belichick Revenge Game!!! The Patriots were written off several weeks ago and the BB eulogies were being crafted. Then they stuffed the Lions in a sack last week. It still didn’t get the radar up. What did put my antenna in the air was Tom Curran — the funniest-in-writing (decently funny in person too, I guess) reporter of any major NFL beat — of NBC Sports Boston giving some praise to Matt Patricia’s offense. 

We all had a good chuckle but the numbers are on par with last year and the Pats have a very winnable schedule coming up. Ignoring the quality of competition from the current season’s teams, let’s acknowledge Bill Belichick is about to play the Jets twice, the Browns once and the Colts once in a six-game stretch. Bill might as well be Steve Buscemi writing names right before he gets that call from Billy Madison. The sixth opponent is the Bears. Even with Bailey Zappe (!), the Pats might be about to get hot.

The Pick: Patriots 18, Browns 13
Bets: Lean under and Pats

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-7.5

Aaron Rodgers is a complex individual, but he’s also got some very simple, very respectable and very dangerous tendencies when he’s questioned. Rodgers has Michael Jordan level spite levers working inside his head. There’s nothing more complimentary than the way Tom Brady approaches Rodgers — he’s treated as a contemporary despite being seven years younger. And Brady still stays aloof, because he knows Rodgers is a threat. Anywho, the Packers lost and Rodgers is probably going to carve up the Jets in this LaFleur vs. LaFleur matchup.

The Pick: Packers 31, Jets 17
Bets: Packers -7

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)   

Latest Odds:

Atlanta Falcons
+4.5

If we’re going to ding a franchise for a perceived bad roster, we need to give credit to a coaching staff for maxing out that roster. The Falcons have played five games and have been in five one-score games. Arthur Smith is doing a really good job with the current Falcons roster and deserves credit for navigating the Matt Ryan/Marcus Mariota swap meet move. He had nothing to do with it and still has the offense giving people problems. If anyone gives these guys flak for using “smoke and mirrors” quickly remind them that’s coaching. I’m going Niners here but if the final injuries are bad for San Francisco I wouldn’t want to be on their side.

The Pick: 49ers 28, Falcons 24
Bets: Pass

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Pittsburgh Steelers
+9.5

Tom Brady is 9-3 all time against the Steelers with a 20-5 touchdown-interception ratio. Does that really carry over into Sunday’s game? Maybe not, especially with him on a different team and a lack of Bill Belichick to help gameplan. But Brady has a wealth of experience inside ACRISURE FIELD and that will make life easier for the Bucs QB. A whole host of injuries on both sides of the ball for Tampa Bay could make this a closer game than it should be, but I trust Brady to lock in and Todd Bowles to cook up enough defensive pressures to keep Kenny Pickett scrambling. The Steelers have never won a game without T.J. Watt since they drafted him in the first round. He’s that important. 

The Pick: Buccaneers 24, Steelers 17
Bets: Pass

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
+2.5

This game is the crown jewel of the entire week and it’s ON CBS IF YOU DIDN’T HEAR. Fire up Paramount+ and stream it with your free trial if you don’t already have access! Honestly the pick here comes down to one thing for me: Patrick Mahomes is an underdog at home for the first time ever as a starter. I am going to take those points, even if the Bills have the best roster in football and are looking to try and shrink the perceived power gap in the AFC. Thirteen seconds still lingers for this Buffalo team, even if no one will talk to you about it.

The Pick: Chiefs 31, Bills 28
Bets: Chiefs +2.5

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Seattle Seahawks
+2.5

Why are the Cardinals favored here? Geno Smith isn’t just playing better than Russell Wilson, he’s playing better than Kyler Murray too. The Seahawks can’t play a lick of defense right now, and I absolutely love the over in this spot. Everyone is going to be focused on Buffalo/Kansas City, but this is a sneaky fun game and it could result in an explosion of points. Over the last three weeks, the Seahawks and their opponents combined to score 224 total points, just an outrageous amount of scoring. Weather’s looking gorgeous and neither of these pass defenses can stop anyone. 

The Pick: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 28
Bets: Seahawks +2.5, Over 50.5

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Rams
-10

This is the stinky survivor game du jour. Everyone is out on the Rams with their lackadaisical offensive performance the last few weeks and offensive line issues. It would be hardly unsurprising if Matthew Stafford was battling some fairly serious injuries. The Rams were an easy pick if David Tepper allowed Matt Rhule to remain employed another week. But this becomes a Spidey Sense game because of the unknown with Steve Wilkes and P.J. Walker. Personally I think the Panthers are going to get steamrolled but the dead cat bounce for teams who fired their coach — particularly early in the season and against the spread — is a real thing. If Wilkes and Brian Burns decided to spend the next few months trying to get real paid it wouldn’t be surprising. 

The Pick: Rams 21, Panthers 11
Bets: Pass

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Philadelphia Eagles
-6.5

It’s so wild this game is for the NFC East lead considering the lack of Dak Prescott for the Cowboys since his Week 1 injury. The Dallas defense is carrying this team and, as I will continue to repeat every week in this space for the rest of the year, someone needs to hire Dan Quinn this coming offseason. The Eagles are deep enough on the offensive line to thwart the Cowboys pass rush and I’m not sure the Cooper Rush Cinderella story can last through what might be one of the wildest Philly sports weekends in a long time. This crowd is going to be rabid, and the Eagles can snuff out questionable traits from opposing teams.

The Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 14
Bets: Eagles -6

Broncos at Chargers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: 
ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Los Angeles Chargers
-4.5

Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver isn’t going as well offensively as, um, anyone would expect. The Broncos and Chargers are fairly snug in overall DVOA but the Broncos are buoyed by their top-five defense. Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett’s monstrosity ranks 27th by offensive DVOA. The Chargers look balanced and might have survived their initial wave of injuries to stabilize their standing in the AFC. This is a massive game for playoff positioning; it’s unfortunate the Chargers will be playing in an away environment. I’ll still back them, but it’s largely because the Broncos just don’t look very good.

The Pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 17
Bets: Chargers -4.5





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